THE FRONT LINE: NOVEMBER 20, 2007
Are You Ready For Black Friday 2007… And Beyond?
Yes, there will be plenty of “limited quantity” deals to be had, if you’re crazy enough to stand in a line at 3 AM this coming Friday. But you’ll be able to score other deals as we get close and closer to Christmas, not to mention the 2008 Super Bowl.
It seems like only yesterday when Black Friday changed from an accounting industry term to a major nationwide retailing event, one that finds thousands of people camped outside big box stores in the wee small hours, hoping to grab an unbelievable deal on a new gaming console, big screen TV, or portable media player.
While this generates great publicity for the major retail chains and makes for a great news story on your local TV station, it’s not really necessary to lose your hard-earned post-Thanksgiving sleep to get a good deal on an HDTV or blue laser DVD player. With most major economic indicators pointing downwards this holiday season, retailers from Target and Wal-Mart to Best Buy and Circuit City (not to mention manufacturers) are plenty concerned about hitting their sales numbers.
Think about it: We saw a brutal price war between plasma and LCD manufacturers last year that lasted all the way to the 2007 Super Bowl. The two blue laser camps (HD DVD and Blu-Ray) are in the middle of a no less ferocious battle for hearts and minds, which is forcing down prices to new lows and resulting in player/media bundle buys we never saw with red laser DVD.
To top it all off, more manufacturers have dropped out of the rear-projection HDTV business (count Toshiba, Hitachi, and now JVC as the latest casualties) to concentrate on flat panel LCD and plasma offerings. That basically leaves Sony, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, and Samsung to duke it out — and with prices on big plasma and LCD sets bearing down on them, these three have no choice but to slash prices even further on their 1080p sets.
Here’s a quick look at what to expect as we wind our way into and through December:
LCD AND PLASMA
Panasonic continues to be the 800-pound gorilla in plasma and will offer aggressive discounts on both their 720p and 1080p models. It’s clear that 1080p is what consumers want (even if they don’t really need it), so you’ll see the company’s 42-inch H-42PZ77U priced at $1300 and the 50-inch TH-50PZ77U well below $2,500 in short order — maybe even $1,999.
Samsung and LG will be competitive at the 50-inch 1080p level, offering similar discounts. Hitachi’s “almost” 1080p 50-incher (P50H401, with 1280x1080 resolution) is already tagged at $1,999 — look for it to drop another $400 over the holidays to remain competitive with 720p sets from Philips ($1,600) and Insignia ($1,300 for Best Buy’s in-house brand).
Pioneer remains in the high price category with its new KURO plasmas, but their PDP-5010FD 1080p model is overpriced at $4,900. Look for big price cuts ($1,000 to $1,300) in early January if inventory is slow to move on this model and the 720p version. Vizio’s VP50 and “Jive” 50-inch 720p plasmas will also be priced aggressively to match (and likely undercut) other 720p sets at Wal-Mart, Circuit City, and Costco.
VIZIO has also created waves in the LCD HDTV business, triggering some pretty tough pricing battles with major players Sharp, Samsung, Olevia, and Sony. Their VW42L and VX42L sets — already priced below $1,000 — will probably get discounted again by another $100. Sony’s been trimming prices on its 40-inch KDL40V2500 Bravia (1080p) to $1,400, a price that will be matched by Samsung.
It can and will go lower! Why? Because you will be able to find a 46-inch or 47-inch 1080p LCD HDTV for just $100 more (LG, Sony, Samsung). That will drive sales to new heights in the 46/47-inch category and force brand name 40-inch and 42-inch 720p glass below $1,000 permanently. (LG’s 42-inch 42LC7D is already available for $1,019 at Circuit City.)
Those price drops will in turn force second-tier 37-inch LCD sets closer to $699 and 32-inch LCD TVs nearer and nearer to the magical $500 figure. Maybe not by the end of the 2007 holiday shopping season, but someone will break that barrier in 2008. As for larger screens, the number to shoot for seems to be $2,999, which Best Buy is already touting with LG’s 52-inch 52LB5D.
Look for Samsung and Philips to get into a three-way price war in this category as the selling season heats up, pushing prices lower and closer to $2,500 as we zoom into January and approach the Super Bowl. Sony will stay out of the fray as long as they can, as will Sharp and Mitsubishi. But they’ll have to close ground somewhat after the first of the year.
REAR PROJECTION HDTVS
This category gets smaller and smaller every year, to the chagrin of Texas Instruments which is currently spending a bundle of money advertising and promoting DLP technology this fall during prime time and NFL football games. Consider that, on the day this was written, Best Buy offered 131 models of LCD TVs and 38 models of plasma TVs, but just 20 models of projection HDTVs.
Of those 20 models, four use 3LCD technology (Panasonic) and five use LCoS technology (Sony), with one CRT model available from Philips. That leaves ten DLP models from Mitsubishi and Samsung. (Note — Mitsubishi announced at press time that the company would begin selling their RPTVs through TigerDirect.com. You may draw your own conclusions about the future of Mitsubishi RPTV sales…)
Sony’s KDF-46E3000 46-inch BRAVIA 1080p set isn’t much cheaper than a 46-inch LCD flat-panel HDTV at $1,299, and it will drop below $1,000 shortly as that screen size is phased out. For $1,500, you can pick up Samsung’s HLT5676S 56-inch 1080p slim RPTV, which is a relative bargain in terms of screen size vs. price when compared to plasma. Wait until the Super Bowl gets closer, and you may be able to take another $100 off that price.
Samsung, Sony, Panasonic, and Mitsubishi are all within $300 of each other with their 60-inch and 61-inch 1080p sets. Look for those prices to equalize around $1,999 over the next 30 days as sales pressure mounts. Why? For one thing, VIZIO’s VM60PHDTV10A 60-inch plasma HDTV is currently priced at $2,499 at Wal-Mart, Costco, and Circuit City, and a $200 discount is nothing to those guys.
HD DVD AND BLU-RAY
The smoke and noise continues unabated for two new optical disc formats that most Americans still aren’t aware of. But Toshiba has been grabbing the lion’s share of attention for HD DVD, first by signing Paramount and DreamWorks Animation to an exclusive distribution deal on HD DVD earlier this year, and then for a $99 blow-out sale earlier this month on the entry-level HD-A2 player by Wal-Mart and Best Buy.
Presently, Toshiba’s newest entry-level player (HD-A3, 1080i output only) can be had for $199 with an instant discount, and there’s a “five free movies” mail-in rebate offer with every player. Considering that HD DVD titles average about $30 at Circuit City, that’s a tremendous offer — and CC is also running its own “buy two HD DVDs and get a third one free” promotion on selected titles. The 1080p HD-A30 is $399; look for a $100 discount on this model as well in the next two weeks.
CC also has the same “three for two” deal for selected Blu-ray discs, which are priced accordingly. However, the cheapest Blu-ray player remains Samsung’s BD-P1400, which is currently discounted to $399, but offers 1080p output. Sony’s BD-PS300 remains at $400 and Panasonic, Sony, and Sharp all have models prices at $500, with no signs yet of discounting. But you can count on some price cuts within two weeks of Christmas — none of these companies can stand on the sidelines for long and watch Toshiba steal their thunder. Look for Sony and Panasonic to cut $100 off their retail prices.
What will drive blue laser sales? Transformers is already out exclusively on HD DVD. Ditto Shrek The Third. Disney has countered with Pirates of the Caribbean III and Sony has its web-slinging stalwart Spider-Man 3 on Blu-ray.
With this “which format do I buy?” conundrum, does LG’s $999 BH200 dual-format blue laser player stand much of a chance? Not if you can buy the Toshiba A30 and Samsung 1400 players together for almost $200 less! Look for LG to do the math, and whack $200 off the price of this player in short order.
OTHER TIPS
Look for more aggressive pricing on blue and red laser players and movies up to and right after Christmas. The focus will shift away from movies, over to big screen HDTVs for the football playoffs and 2008 Super Bowl in January. Also, you’ll see better sales on smaller LCD screens (42 inches and lower) over the next four weeks, particularly sets for secondary use in bedrooms and kitchens.
Rear projection HDTVs will see heavy discounts right through to February. Basically, early 2008 is do-or-die time for Texas Instruments and DLP — the continued downward trend in large screen plasma and LCD prices is driving 1080p DLP products to last year’s 720p price levels, and there isn’t a whole lotta headroom left.
Remember — if you mostly watch a diet of standard-definition TV, red laser DVDs, and some HDTV, don’t overlook the excellent deals on 720p and 768p HDTV sets in all shapes and sizes. None of the 1080p HDTVs I have tested to date do a halfway decent job scaling 480i interlaced or progressive video to 1920x1080, and some of it is just plain unwatchable.
If however you are a true HD “junkie” and have at least one blue laser format on hand, then go with a 1080p set from one of the first tier manufacturers. You’ll just have to put up with low-resolution, pixilated and grainy sitcoms, news programs, and reruns of old TV shows…
